À propos de la conférence
The 2020 Census of the People’s Republic of China sheds fascinating insights on population changes among Tibetans and in Tibet. This presentation focuses on the politicised issue of changing populations and population shares of Tibetans, Han Chinese, and other minzu (nationalities) in Tibetan areas. Two opposite patterns are evident. The Han share increased in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) in the 2010s and the increase accelerated in comparison to the 2000s, but from a small base, reaching 12 percent in 2020, although they were also mostly concentrated in the capital city of Lhasa and to a lesser extent in a few other strategic locations in the province.
In contrast, the Han share fell in the other half of Tibetan areas outside the TAR, which currently account for more than half of the Tibetan population in China. This was driven by depopulation, i.e., shrinking numbers of Han in the majority of counties outside of the TAR, due to outmigration. In the minority of counties where Han populations increased, most were in remote counties where their numbers were very small, and in some this also led to slight increases in share, although Tibetan population growth was rapid in many of these more remote areas as well. Tibetans also migrated out of their counties, underpinned by rural depopulation and rapid urbanization, although their rates of natural increase were sufficiently high that their populations continued to grow in most counties. In terms of destinations, Tibetans appear to have disproportionately congregated in the capital cities of their respective provinces, where their populations have increased by several multiples over the decade. In Qinghai specifically, the dominant demographic tension has not been between Tibetans and Han, but between Tibetans and Muslims, given that Muslim populations in most Tibetan counties of Qinghai grew at a faster pace than Tibetans, although in most cases from very small numbers.
These insights confirm earlier analyses that the dominant structural trend facing these relatively poor peripheral areas is net outmigration, not net in-migration. Because outmigration is stronger among the Han than among Tibetans, combined with higher natural population increase rates among Tibetans (as well as the Muslim groups in Qinghai and Gansu), there is a tendency for rising Tibetan (and Muslim) shares in the context of rapid development. This tendency is only counteracted by extremely high levels of subsidisation, as in the TAR.
Zoom: https://ulaval.zoom.us/j/8892424519?pwd=TFBKS3ZmRFppZmVNWUZJaXBpR1djQT09&omn=63106567514
À propos du conférencier : Andrew M. Fischer (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
Andrew M. Fischer is Professor of Social Policy and Development Studies at the Institute of Social Studies in The Hague, part of Erasmus University Rotterdam. He is also chair and co-editor of the journal Development and Change. He has been researching for over twenty years China’s regional development strategies in western China and their impact on Tibetans, and he has written two books on this topic, the second being The Disempowered Development of Tibet in China: A Study in the Economics of Marginalization (Lexington Books, 2014). Prior to his PhD, Fischer spent seven years living in the Tibetan exile community in India and Nepal, and he lived in Western China for two years during and after his PhD.
